The Dan Report: A Historic El Niño Just Split Ski Country in Two
On October 8, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put the Niño 3.4 index at +2.1°C, with parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific running more than 4°C above normal. A week later, on October 15, NOAA released its winter outlook and confirmed what everyone in ski country already suspected. A strong to very strong El Niño is likely to persist through January to March, and it is going to run the show this winter.
CPC also put an 83% chance on this event, measured over October to December, exceeding every El Niño on record since 1950. Weather.com is calling it a super El Niño. NOAA prefers "very strong" and "historic." Either way, this is the winter we are about to operate in.
The map is simple. Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream south and east. NOAA favors warmer than average conditions across the northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, the Upper Midwest and much of the Northeast, and wetter than average conditions from parts of California through the south central Rockies. SnowBrains, reading NOAA's September charts, flagged Big Sky, Whitefish, Sun Valley and Mt. Bachelor as exposed, and Mammoth, Tahoe, Taos and Arizona Snowbowl as positioned to benefit.
Two caveats matter. NOAA does not forecast seasonal snowfall, and Michelle L'Heureux at CPC reminded ABC News that these outlooks are probabilities, not promises. CPC also noted that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is negative this time, unlike during the big three El Niños of 1982 to 83, 1997 to 98 and 2015 to 16, which may dampen the usual pattern. Nobody should make decisions off a map in October. But operators do make decisions off odds, and the odds tilt warm in the north.
Here is where I read it differently than most of the forecast coverage. A warm, thin winter does not shrink a resort's housing problem. It makes it worse.
When natural snow underperforms, the mountain leans harder on snowmaking, grooming and lift maintenance, which means it needs its most skilled crews more, not less. SnowBrains put it plainly for the East: snowmaking remains the critical variable. Colorado is already firing guns, and Unofficial Networks counted a fourth resort turning them on by mid October. Those crews work nights in November and December, and they have to live somewhere within a reasonable drive of the base.
Meanwhile the front of house gets squeezed. Fewer skier days mean fewer shifts for lift ops, rentals, food and beverage and ski school. Paychecks fall with hours. Rent does not. A worker paying market rent in a northern mountain town who loses hours in a bad January is not waiting around for next season. They move down valley or leave the industry, and the resort spends the following fall recruiting, training and finding beds for a new crew at a higher cost.
That is the hidden cost of a weather year. Ski areas price snow risk into their capital plans through snowmaking upgrades, high elevation terrain and pass products that lock in revenue before the first flake. Very few price workforce risk the same way, and in a warm winter the two are the same risk.
This is the core of what we are building at Oldivai. Employer anchored housing is not a perk. It is an operating hedge. When the employer controls the beds, rent can flex with the season, the snowmaking crew lives minutes from the base, and the people who carried the resort through a lean year are still there when the snow comes back. A mountain in Montana or Idaho heading into a warm, dry winter is better served by beds it controls than by one more marketing push.
The resorts south of the jet stream may have a great year. Good for them. The ones north of it have the harder job, and the ones that keep their people through it will be the ones still standing when the pattern flips. Watch the snow reports this winter, but watch the staffing reports more closely. That is where a warm year actually shows up.
If you run a mountain, or employ people in a town that depends on one, tell me how you are planning staffing and housing for this winter. I want to hear what a lean snow year does to your crew.
About the Author
I'm the founder and CEO of Kaufman & Company, a private investment and holding firm working across real estate development, venture investment, and infrastructure. My focus is workforce housing and employer-anchored development in mountain resort communities, including through Oldivai.
Reach me at Daniel@kaufmanredev.com or find more at danielkaufmanre.com and danskiandbuild.com.
